An inference, in its simplest form:

All books are made of paper.

All paper is made from trees.

Therefore, all books are made from trees.

All paper is made from trees.

Therefore, all books are made from trees.

All geniuses are from Ireland.

Bobby Fischer is a genius.

Therefore, Bobby Fischer is from Ireland. (false conclusion based on false premises)

Bobby Fischer is a genius.

Therefore, Bobby Fischer is from Ireland. (false conclusion based on false premises)

Try out this inference exercise for yourself:

Every afternoon we either roller-blade, hike, or work out at the gym. We only choose one activity per day. The activity that we choose is completely dependent upon weather and daylight.

We roller-blade or hike if the temperature is 45 degrees or above. If it is raining or snowing, we do not roller-blade or hike. We do not roller-blade if wind gusts are more than 15 mph.

If the sun sets before 4:30pm, we choose to work out at the gym. If it is foggy, we do not roller-blade due to visibility concerns.

Questions:

1. It is 6:30pm and sunset is scheduled for 8pm. It is sunny, 85 degrees, and there are wind gusts of 25 mph. What activity will we choose for this afternoon?

2. We have chosen to roller-blade today. What are the weather and daylight conditions if this is our choice?

(For answers, see the section titled Answers to Questions below)

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